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 year 2


Budget-constrained Active Learning to Effectively De-censor Survival Data

Parsaee, Ali, Jiang, Bei, Friggstad, Zachary, Greiner, Russell

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Standard supervised learners attempt to learn a model from a labeled dataset. Given a small set of labeled instances, and a pool of unlabeled instances, a budgeted learner can use its given budget to pay to acquire the labels of some unlabeled instances, which it can then use to produce a model. Here, we explore budgeted learning in the context of survival datasets, which include (right) censored instances, where we know only a lower bound on an instance's time-to-event. Here, that learner can pay to (partially) label a censored instance -- e.g., to acquire the actual time for an instance [perhaps go from (3 yr, censored) to (7.2 yr, uncensored)], or other variants [e.g., learn about one more year, so go from (3 yr, censored) to either (4 yr, censored) or perhaps (3.2 yr, uncensored)]. This serves as a model of real world data collection, where follow-up with censored patients does not always lead to uncensoring, and how much information is given to the learner model during data collection is a function of the budget and the nature of the data itself. We provide both experimental and theoretical results for how to apply state-of-the-art budgeted learning algorithms to survival data and the respective limitations that exist in doing so. Our approach provides bounds and time complexity asymptotically equivalent to the standard active learning method BatchBALD. Moreover, empirical analysis on several survival tasks show that our model performs better than other potential approaches on several benchmarks.


IISE PG&E Energy Analytics Challenge 2025: Hourly-Binned Regression Models Beat Transformers in Load Forecasting

Roy, Millend, Pyltsov, Vladimir, Hu, Yinbo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.


Generative AI Policies under the Microscope: How CS Conferences Are Navigating the New Frontier in Scholarly Writing

Nahar, Mahjabin, Lee, Sian, Guillen, Becky, Lee, Dongwon

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Gen-AI offers significant benefits in content generation and task automation [9], it can be also misused and abused in nefarious applications [7], with more significant risks toward long-tail populations and regions [6]. Professionals in fields like journalism and law still remain cautious due to concerns over hallucinations and ethical issues but scholars in Computer Science (CS), the field where Gen-AI originated, appear to be cautiously but actively exploring its use. For instance, [3] reports the increased use of large language models (LLMs) in the CS scholarly articles (up to 17.5%), compared to Mathematics articles (up to 6.3%), and [2] reports that between 6.5% and 16.9% of peer reviews at ICLR 2024, NeurIPS 2023, CoRL 2023, and EMNLP 2023 may have been significantly altered by LLMs beyond minor revisions. Considering researchers' increasing adoption of Gen-AI, it is crucial to establish usage guidelines and well-defined policies to promote fair and ethical practices in scholarly writing and peer reviews. Previous research also examined Gen-AI policies by major publishers like Elsevier, Springer, etc. [5], but there is still a lack of clear understanding of how CS conferences are adapting to this paradigm shift.


Predicting Parkinson's disease trajectory using clinical and functional MRI features: a reproduction and replication study

Germani, Elodie, Baghwat, Nikhil, Dugré, Mathieu, Gau, Rémi, Montillo, Albert, Nguyen, Kevin, Sokolowski, Andrzej, Sharp, Madeleine, Poline, Jean-Baptiste, Glatard, Tristan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a common neurodegenerative disorder with a poorly understood physiopathology and no established biomarkers for the diagnosis of early stages and for prediction of disease progression. Several neuroimaging biomarkers have been studied recently, but these are susceptible to several sources of variability. In this context, an evaluation of the robustness of such biomarkers is essential. This study is part of a larger project investigating the replicability of potential neuroimaging biomarkers of PD. Here, we attempt to reproduce (same data, same method) and replicate (different data or method) the models described in Nguyen et al., 2021 to predict individual's PD current state and progression using demographic, clinical and neuroimaging features (fALFF and ReHo extracted from resting-state fMRI). We use the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative dataset (PPMI, ppmi-info.org), as in Nguyen et al.,2021 and aim to reproduce the original cohort, imaging features and machine learning models as closely as possible using the information available in the paper and the code. We also investigated methodological variations in cohort selection, feature extraction pipelines and sets of input features. The success of the reproduction was assessed using different criteria. Notably, we obtained significantly better than chance performance using the analysis pipeline closest to that in the original study (R2 > 0), which is consistent with its findings. The challenges encountered while reproducing and replicating the original work are likely explained by the complexity of neuroimaging studies, in particular in clinical settings. We provide recommendations to further facilitate the reproducibility of such studies in the future.


Identifying Early Help Referrals For Local Authorities With Machine Learning And Bias Analysis

Neto, Eufrásio de A. Lima, Bailiss, Jonathan, Finke, Axel, Miller, Jo, Cosma, Georgina

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Local authorities in England, such as Leicestershire County Council (LCC), provide Early Help services that can be offered at any point in a young person's life when they experience difficulties that cannot be supported by universal services alone, such as schools. This paper investigates the utilisation of machine learning (ML) to assist experts in identifying families that may need to be referred for Early Help assessment and support. LCC provided an anonymised dataset comprising 14360 records of young people under the age of 18. The dataset was pre-processed, machine learning models were build, and experiments were conducted to validate and test the performance of the models. Bias mitigation techniques were applied to improve the fairness of these models. During testing, while the models demonstrated the capability to identify young people requiring intervention or early help, they also produced a significant number of false positives, especially when constructed with imbalanced data, incorrectly identifying individuals who most likely did not need an Early Help referral. This paper empirically explores the suitability of data-driven ML models for identifying young people who may require Early Help services and discusses their appropriateness and limitations for this task.


As 'Halo Infinite' esports enters year 2, teams express cautious optimism

Washington Post - Technology News

"Viewership is absolutely critical to the success of this ecosystem," wrote Tahir "Tashi" Hasandjekic, head of esports at 343 Industries, the subsidiary of Microsoft that developed "Infinite," in a blog post Jan. 2022. At the time, the HCS was riding high on the popularity of its debut tournament, and the competitive scene was a bright spot in an otherwise dimming constellation. Some of the biggest esports teams in the world, like OpTic Gaming and FaZe Clan, had eagerly joined up for "Halo Infinite," signing veteran stars and top emerging talent. At peak vewiership, more than 267,000 Halo fans were tuned into the game's first major tournament concurrently.


On Error Correction Neural Networks for Economic Forecasting

Mvubu, Mhlasakululeka, Kabuga, Emmanuel, Plitz, Christian, Bah, Bubacarr, Becker, Ronnie, Zimmermann, Hans Georg

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are more suitable for learning non-linear dependencies in dynamical systems from observed time series data. In practice all the external variables driving such systems are not known a priori, especially in economical forecasting. A class of RNNs called Error Correction Neural Networks (ECNNs) was designed to compensate for missing input variables. It does this by feeding back in the current step the error made in the previous step. The ECNN is implemented in Python by the computation of the appropriate gradients and it is tested on stock market predictions. As expected it out performed the simple RNN and LSTM and other hybrid models which involve a de-noising pre-processing step. The intuition for the latter is that de-noising may lead to loss of information.